WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE

July 19, 2021

General Market News

  • Treasury yields rebounded modestly last week before a sharp sell-off cratered yields on Monday morning. The 10-year lost 14 basis points (bps) week-over-week to open at around 1.2 percent, its lowest level since early February of this year. The 30-year shed 15 bps to open around 1.83 percent early Monday. Shorter-dated bonds saw smaller adjustments but still moved lower, as the 5-year yield lost 7 bps to open at about 0.72 percent and the 2-year lost 2 bps to open at around 0.2 percent. The latest moves mark a renewed fear of virus variants and questions about economic growth in the near term.

July 12, 2021

General Market News

  • Treasury yields plunged last week as investors weighed concerns about virus variants and shifting monetary policy and the potential effects on the global recovery. The 10-year yield fell about 13 basis points (bps) week-over-week to open at 1.33 percent on Monday morning. The 5-year yield also fell 13 bps to open at 0.76 percent. The 30-year yield was the next biggest mover, shedding 10 bps to open at 1.96 percent. The 2-year yield fell about 5 bps from 0.26 percent to 0.21 percent.

July 6, 2021

General Market News

  • Yields fell slightly across the Treasury curve last week as the first half of 2021 wrapped up. The 10-year yield fell about 5 basis points (bps) week-over-week to open around 1.41 percent on Monday morning. The 2-year was down 1 bp to 0.26 percent. The 30-year saw the biggest move, shedding 7 bps to open at 2.03 percent. The 5-year was down 2 bps to 0.89 percent. The 10-year has hovered between 1.5 percent and 1.4 percent for the past several months as investors gauge the global recovery and possible policy changes from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

June 21, 2021

General Market News

  • The Treasury curve flattened significantly after last week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting as investors grappled with the central bank’s hawkish forecasts. The 10-year Treasury yield was mostly unchanged Monday morning, opening at 1.44 percent. The 30-year fell 11 basis points (bps) week-over-week, opening at 2.03 percent. Shorter-dated notes sold off sharply as the 5-year gained 18 bps week-over-week, opening at 0.89 percent, and the 2-year rose 8 bps to 0.23 percent.

June 14, 2021

General Market News

  • With future inflation expectations abated and investors returning to bonds, longer-term Treasury yields flattened last week. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 9.7 basis points (bps) from last week’s open, starting at 1.46 percent Monday morning. The 30-year yield fell 8.5 bps week-over-week, opening at 2.15 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened at 0.15 percent, up slightly from the previous week.

June 7, 2021

General Market News

  • The yield curve flattened slightly last week as fixed income investors weighed the reopening of the economy against the possibility the Federal Reserve (Fed) will taper its policy later in the year. The 10-year Treasury yield opened the week at 1.58 percent and closed about 2.2 basis points (bps) lower. On Monday morning, the 10-year opened at 1.57 percent, reversing most of last week’s move. The 30-year opened Monday at 2.25 percent, 7.8 bps lower than last week’s open. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year Treasury opened at 0.16 percent, 0.6 bps higher than last week’s open.

June 1, 2021

General Market News

  • The yield curve moved modestly lower again last week as the Federal Reserve (Fed) continued its patient monetary policy. The 10-year Treasury yield opened the week at 1.62 percent and closed more than 4 basis points (bps) lower at 1.58 percent. It opened at 1.63 percent on Tuesday morning. The 30-year opened at 2.33 percent, slightly up from last week’s open of 2.32 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened at 0.15 percent, 0.6 bps below last week’s open.

May 24, 2021

General Market News

  • The yield curve ticked lower on the week as investors digested the most recent inflationary data and debated future inflation expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield opened Monday morning at 1.62 percent, only slightly lower than last week’s open of 1.63 percent. The 30-year yield opened at 2.31 percent, down 4.1 basis points (bps) from last week’s open of 2.35 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened at 0.16 percent, just 0.6 bps more than last week’s open.

May 17, 2021

General Market News

  • The yield curve moved modestly higher on the week as inflationary data came in above economists’ expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield opened Monday morning slightly higher than 1.64 percent, up from last week’s open of 1.58 percent. The 30-year opened at 2.35 percent, up 7.2 basis points (bps) from last week’s open of 2.28 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened at 0.15 percent. just 0.6 bps more than last week’s open.

May 10, 2021

General Market News

  • The 10-year Treasury yield opened Monday morning at 1.57 percent, down from last week’s open of 1.63 percent. The 30-year opened at 2.28 percent, down 1.7 basis points (bps) from last week’s open of 2.30 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened at 0.15 percent—1.3 bps less than last week’s open.

April 19, 2021

General Market News

  • We saw mild flattening of the yield curve last week as longer-dated yields declined. Despite positive economic data, the drop occurred as foreign buyers, particularly from Japan, purchased bonds and drove yields down. The 10-year Treasury yield remained flat, opening the week at 1.66 percent and closing 9 basis points (bps) lower at 1.57 percent. The 10-year opened just shy of 1.61 percent on the 19th, eroding part of last week’s move. The 30-year opened at 2.29 percent, down roughly 5 bps from last week’s open. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year Treasury opened at 0.16 percent, increasing just two-tenths of a basis point.

April 12, 2021

General Market News

  • The 10-year Treasury yield remained flat last week. On Monday morning, it opened just one-tenth of a basis point higher than last Monday’s open. The 30-year came in at 2.34 percent on Monday, down just two-tenths of a basis point from last week’s open. On the shorter end of the curve, there was a slight decline in yields after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s 60 Minutes interview, in which he stated he expects rates to remain low through 2021. The 2-year opened last week at 0.18 percent and came in at 0.17 percent on Monday morning.

April 5, 2021

General Market News

  • Rates increased modestly last week. The 10-year Treasury yield opened at 1.67 percent and closed at 1.71 percent. On Monday morning, the 30-year opened at 2.35 percent, down from last week’s open of 2.38 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened last week at 0.14 percent and increased to 0.18 percent on Monday.

March 29, 2021

General Market News

  • Inflation fears have increased recently, and yet inflation remains muted, growing at just 1.4 percent year-over-year, according to the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. In August, the Federal Reserve agreed to let the PCE price index run hot to get average inflation closer to the targeted 2 percent level, so this data is worth watching. On Monday morning, the 10-year Treasury yield opened at 1.65 percent, a decline of 12 basis points (bps) from last Monday’s open of 1.73 percent. The 30-year yield opened at 2.36 percent, down from last week’s open of 2.44 percent. There was a slight increase on the shorter end of the curve, with the 2-year rising 0.2 bps to Monday’s open of 0.14 percent.

March 22, 2021

General Market News

  • Rates continued to rise last week. On Monday morning, the 10-year Treasury yield opened just below 1.71 percent, an increase of 8.5 basis points from last week’s open of 1.63 percent. The 30-year opened just above 2.41 percent, up from last week’s open of 2.36 percent. Finally, on the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened last week at 0.15 percent and remained flat through Monday morning’s open. Despite comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, rates did not rise based on inflation concerns. Powell continued to highlight the Fed’s stance of keeping rates low for some time amid uncertainty in its economic forecasts.

March 15, 2021

General Market News

  • Rates moved higher last week but at a more muted pace, with the 10-year Treasury yield opening just shy of 1.58 percent and closing at 1.64 percent, where it remained through Monday’s open. The 30-year yield opened at almost 2.40 percent, up from last week’s open of 2.30 percent. There was a slight increase in yields on the shorter end of the curve as well, with the 2-year opening Monday at 0.15 percent.

March 8, 2021

General Market News

  • Rates continued to rise last week, with the 10-year Treasury yield opening at almost 1.41 percent and closing at 1.59 percent. On Monday morning, the 10-year opened just shy of 1.60 percent, and the 30-year opened at 2.32 percent, up from last week’s open of 2.16 percent. There was a slight increase in yields on the shorter end of the curve as well, with the 2-year yield opening at 0.15 percent. Last week, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said he expects some transient inflation in the near term. There is a rumor that the Fed may relaunch Operation Twist, which was last launched in 2011 and involved the Fed selling short-term Treasuries and purchasing longer-dated ones to mitigate rising financing costs.

March 1, 2021

General Market News

  • Rates continued to rise last week, with the 5-year Treasury yield increasing 19 basis points (bps). On Monday morning, the 10-year opened just shy of 1.40 percent, which was only 6 bps higher than last week’s open. The 10-year hit a high of 1.61 percent last Thursday, however, which demonstrates the recent volatility in Treasuries. The 30-year opened on Monday at 2.15 percent, up from last week’s open of 2.14 percent. There was a slight increase in yields on the shorter end of the curve as well, with the 2-year hitting a high of 0.19 percent last Thursday.

February 22, 2021

General Market News

  • Rates continued to rise last week, with the 5- and 10-year Treasuries shifting the most. This follows an increase in 10- and 20-year Treasuries the previous week. It’s unknown when or if the short end of the curve will follow with action from the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is committed to driving inflation before raising interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield opened last week near 1.21 percent, closing just shy of 1.38 percent to end the week. It opened this morning at 1.36 percent, 15 basis points (bps) higher than last week’s open. The 30-year Treasury opened at 2.15 percent, a gain of 14 bps from last week’s open of 2.01 percent. Finally, on the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year Treasury opened last week at 0.11 percent and has remained flat through Monday’s open.

February 16, 2021

General Market News

  • Rates picked up across the yield curve last week, especially with 10- and 20-year Treasury maturities. The primary focus remains on a potential stimulus package and near-term uncertainty with respect to market inflation expectations and future Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. The 10-year Treasury yield opened last week just below 1.17 percent, closing the week at 1.20 percent; it opened at 1.23 percent this morning. The 30-year opened this morning just below 2.03 percent after opening last week at 1.99 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, we saw a slight increase in yields. The 2-year opened last week at 0.105 percent, ticking up to 0.113 percent this morning.

February 8, 2021

General Market News

  • With coronavirus cases continuing to fall globally, we saw significant steepening of the yield curve. The 10-year Treasury yield opened last week at 1.07 percent and closed just below 1.14 percent. This morning, the 10-year opened at 1.18 percent, up 11 basis points (bps) week-over-week. The 30-year opened just shy of 1.98 percent, up 14.5 bps from last week. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened last week at 0.11 percent and lost less than one-half of a basis point to open this morning.

February 1, 2021

General Market News

  • We saw mixed trading in the fixed income markets last week, with purchases ticking up on the shorter and longer ends of the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield opened last week at 1.09 percent and closed at 1.07 percent. It opened this morning at 1.09 percent. The 30-year opened this morning at 1.84 percent, a gain of 1 basis point from last week’s opening. On the shorter end of the curve, we saw a sizable move; the 2-year opened last week at 0.13 percent and dropped to 0.11 percent at the opening this morning.

January 25, 2021

General Market News

  • There was minimal flattening in the yield curve during the holiday-shortened week. The 10-year Treasury yield opened at 1.09 percent and closed at 1.05 percent. This morning, the 10-year yield opened just below 1.07 percent—a loss of approximately 2 basis points (bps) since last week’s open. The 30-year opened at 1.82 percent, a loss of 2 bps from last week’s open of 1.84. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened last week at 0.14 percent and lost 1 bp at the opening this morning.

January 19, 2021

General Market News

  • After major steepening last week, there has been little movement in the yield curve. The 10-year Treasury yield opened at 1.12 percent and closed the week at 1.11 percent. This morning, the 10-year yield opened just above 1.10 percent—a loss of approximately 2 basis points (bps). The 30-year opened at 1.85 percent, which was a loss of roughly 2 bps from last week’s open of 1.88 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened last week at 0.14 percent and added 0.6 bps at the opening this morning. Bond investors seem to be caught in between the Biden team’s $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal and lackluster economic data.

January 11, 2021

General Market News

  • After little movement during the week of New Year’s, we saw significant steepening of the yield curve in the first week of 2021. The 10-year Treasury yield opened at 0.93 percent and closed just shy of 1.11 percent. This morning, the 10-year yield opened just above 1.13 percent—a pickup of 20 basis points (bps) in just one week. The 30-year yield opened at 1.9 percent—a gain of more than 23 bps from last week’s open of 1.66 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened last week at 0.14 percent and fell just 1.2 bps at the opening this morning. The pickup in yields was predominantly driven by the results of the Georgia runoffs, as two additional senators for the Democratic Party increases the likelihood of additional stimulus.

January 4, 2021

General Market News

  • Last week saw minimal movement in the yield curve due to light trading and the holiday. The 10-year Treasury yield opened at 0.93 percent and closed the week just shy of 0.92 percent. This morning, the 10-year yield opened at almost 0.93 percent. The 30-year opened at 1.66 percent—a loss of less than 1 basis point from last week’s open of 1.67 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened last week at 0.12 percent and fell just three-tenths of a basis point this morning.

December 21, 2020

General Market News

  • Last week saw a moderate steepening of the yield curve as lawmakers moved closer to a potential stimulus package and the Moderna vaccine was approved. The 10-year Treasury yield opened the week at 0.93 percent and closed just shy of 0.95 percent. This morning, it opened just below 0.90 percent, down 3 basis points (bps) from last week’s open. The 30-year opened this morning at 1.64 percent, a loss of 3 bps from last week’s open of 1.67 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, we saw a sizable move as the 2-year opened last week at 0.121 percent and rose one-fifth of a basis point to 0.123 percent this morning. The bond market signals investors were cautiously optimistic heading into the weekend.

December 14, 2020

General Market News

  • Last week saw a moderate flattening of the yield curve in response to potential stimulus talks, vaccine approval news, and the latest jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield opened last week near 0.97 percent and ended the week just below 0.89 percent. It opened higher this morning, just shy of 0.92 percent. The 30-year opened this morning at 1.66 percent, a loss of 8 basis points (bps) from last week’s open at 1.74 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, we saw a sizable move as the 2-year opened last week at 0.16 percent and dropped 3 bps to 0.13 percent this morning.

December 7, 2020

General Market News

  • Last week saw a steepening of the yield curve as optimism grew over vaccine news and the potential for new stimulus. The 10-year Treasury yield opened last week just below 0.85 percent and closed just shy of 0.97 percent. This morning, the 10-year opened at 0.94 percent, almost 9 basis points (bps) higher than last week’s open. The 30-year opened this morning at 1.70 percent, an increase of 11 bps over last week. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened last week at 0.15 percent and dropped to 0.14 this morning.

November 30, 2020

General Market News

  • The holiday-shortened week saw a modest pickup in yields. The 10-year Treasury yield opened at 0.82 percent and closed just shy of 0.88 percent on Wednesday. This morning, the 10-year yield opened at 0.85 percent, up 3 basis points (bps) from last week’s open. The 30-year yield opened just shy of 1.52 percent last week, and it opened at 1.58 percent this morning—a pickup of 6 bps. Finally, on the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened at 0.16 percent last week, dropping 1 bp to 0.15 percent this morning.