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WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE

June 13, 2022

General Market News

  • The U.S. Department of Labor released its May inflation numbers last Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that inflation increased 8.6 percent year-over-year, coming in above analyst expectations for an 8.3 percent increase. The FOMC has been closely watching CPI for any signs of cooling inflation as we approach the 6/14–6/15 meeting, and it’s likely concerned that the numbers remain frustratingly elevated. This latest report certainly bolsters expectations for consecutive 50 basis point (bp) rate hikes at the next two meetings. It also perpetuates worries about the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s ability to engineer a soft landing as inflation persists and economic growth expectations slow. U.S. Treasury yields were up across the curve last week. The 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year rose 15 bps (to 2.81 percent), 13 bps (to 3.07 percent), 10 bps (to 3.04 percent), and 8 bps (to 3.17 percent), respectively.

June 6, 2022

General Market News

  • The U.S. Department of Labor reported that employers added 390,000 jobs in May. At the same time, the unemployment rate remained flat at 3.6 percent. These strong employment conditions bolster the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s ability to move forward with aggressively hiking interest rates to hamper inflation. With market conditions and Fed officials' sentiments pointing to support for consecutive 50 basis point (bp) increases at the June and July meetings, focuses now shift to the September meeting and where interest rates are expected to go from there. Speaking on the matter, Fed Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester offered her thoughts. “If by the September FOMC meeting the monthly readings on inflation provide compelling evidence that inflation is moving down, then the pace of rate increases could slow. But if inflation has failed to moderate, then a faster pace of rate increases could be necessary,” she said. “The risk of recession has risen, but because underlying aggregate demand momentum and the demand for labor are so strong, a good case can still be made.” The U.S. Treasury yield curve was up last week; the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year rose 15 bps (to 2.73 percent), 19 bps (to 2.91 percent), 17 bps (to 2.91 percent), and 11 bps (to 3.08 percent), respectively.

May 31, 2022

General Market News

  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s most recent meeting minutes were released last Wednesday and provided further support for the market's expectation of back-to-back 50 basis point (bp) rate hikes at the June and July meetings. “Most participants judged that 50 basis point increases in the target range would likely be appropriate at the next couple of meetings,” the minutes said. It was also reiterated that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may have to push interest rates beyond neutral and into restrictive territory to confidently quell inflation, stating that “a restrictive stance of policy may well become appropriate depending on the evolving economic outlook and the risks to the outlook.” This type of open-ended language has been a staple in the Fed's recent guidance as they look to remain nimble, balance its desire to effectively fight inflation, and engineer a soft (or "softish") landing to avoid a recession. Treasury yields were down slightly last week. The 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields fell 4 bps (to 2.48 percent), 1 bp (to 2.71 percent), 3 bps (to 2.75 percent), and 1 bp (to 2.98 percent), respectively.

May 16, 2022

General Market News

  • The U.S. Senate confirmed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell to his second term last week as the U.S. continues to grapple with its highest rate of inflation in 40 years. With the FOMC June meeting approaching, incoming economic data will be closely monitored to better gauge potential interest rate paths moving forward. Fed Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester indicated her support for continuing an aggressive tightening policy in the coming months. "Given economic conditions, ongoing increases in the Fed funds rate are called for, and unless there are some big surprises, I expect it to be appropriate to raise the policy rate another 50 basis points [bps] at each of our next two meetings.” The U.S. Treasury yield curve saw a modest steepening last week. The 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields dropped 15 bps (to 2.56 percent), 19 bps (to 2.82 percent), and 7 bps (to 2.85 percent), respectively. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield remained flat at 3 percent.

May 2, 2022

General Market News

  • As we approach the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s May 3-4 meeting, last week's GDP report for the first quarter of 2022 is a poignant reminder of the fine line the Fed must walk to appropriately balance the risks of continued inflation and the potential for a rate-induced recession. The production decline of 1.4 percent on an annualized basis marks the weakest quarter since spring of 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic initially kicked off in the United States. Still, the underlying data and strength of consumers and businesses point to continued growth for the U.S.—if supply chain issues continue to ease and the pandemic remains at bay. This fundamental strength is a key focus as the Fed looks for signs that the economy will be able to support a relatively aggressive tightening policy in the months ahead. The U.S. Treasury yield curve experienced some flattening last week. The 2-year and 5-year U.S. Treasury yields were up 10 basis points (bps) and 1bp (to 2.62 percent and 2.84 percent), respectively; the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields fell 8 bps and 3 bps (to 2.83 percent and 2.90 percent), respectively.

April 18, 2022

General Market News

  • Inflation increased 8.5 percent year-over-year in March, according to data released last week. Faced with this multidecade high, markets eagerly await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) May meeting to see what’s in store for interest rates and the Fed’s balance sheet. An increasing number of top Fed officials have signaled support for a rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) at the May meeting, and minutes from the central bank’s March meeting point to the addition of an aggressive balance sheet runoff of roughly $100 billion per month. The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened, with the 2-year down 12 bps to 2.35 percent and the 5-year falling 3 bps to 2.65 percent. The 10-year increased 10 bps to 2.7 percent and the 30-year rose 18 bps to 2.81 percent.

April 11, 2022

General Market News

  • The Federal Reserve (Fed)'s March meeting minutes were released last week and revealed a more hawkish theme, pointing to more aggressive policy moves at future meetings. In addition to quicker interest rate hikes to address the short end of the curve, the Fed also expressed their intent to shrink their balance sheet by $100 billion per month to help elevate the longer end of the curve. U.S. Treasury yields were up across the curve last week. The 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields rose 12 basis points (bps) to 2.46 percent, 25 bps to 2.71 percent, 32 bps to 2.66 percent, and 23 bps to 2.68 percent, respectively.

April 4, 2022

General Market News

  • The U.S. Labor Department's Friday report showed 431,000 jobs added in March, bringing the unemployment rate down to 3.6 percent. With employment numbers continuing to bolster the case for a more aggressive interest rate path moving forward, a rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) at the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s May meeting seems to be gaining momentum. U.S. Treasury yields were relatively stable over the past week with modest movements across the curve. The 2-year yield was up 1 bp to 2.38 percent, the 5-year fell 4 bps to 2.52 percent, the 10-year yield was up 3 bps to 2.4 percent, and the 30-year yield dropped by 4 bps to end the week at 2.5 percent. We saw a temporary inversion of the 10- and 2-year yields, adding to market concerns of a potential recession. Although inverted yield curves have historically preceded recessions, there are varying and unprecedented conditions in today's markets that make the future unpredictable.

March 21, 2022

General Market News

  • The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a 25 basis point (bps) increase in their target rate after last week's FOMC meeting. This came after an 8:1 vote with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard as the only dissent, stating his case for a 50 bps hike. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled an aggressive rate path moving forward but didn’t provide specific expectations to see how economic conditions develop. Aided by the Fed's rate hike, yields were up across the curve last week. The 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields were up 22 bps (1.92 percent), 22 bps (2.15 percent), 18 bps (2.17 percent), and 10 bps (2.47 percent), respectively.

March 14, 2022

General Market News

  • February inflation numbers show a 7.9 percent increase in prices over the past 12 months, marking the fastest Consumer Price Index (CPI) acceleration since 1982 with oil prices adding to the pressure. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve (Fed) this week as we wait to see what comes out of the March 15-16 meeting. Markets are anticipating a hike in interest rates—around 25 basis points (bps)—based on strong signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Treasury yields rose across the curve last week. The 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year Treasury yields increased 17, 20, 15, and 15 bps, respectively.

March 7, 2022

General Market News

  • Yields came down a bit across the U.S. Treasury curve last week. The U.S. 2-year yield was down 5 basis points (bps), ending the week at 1.53 percent, and the 5- and 10-year yields were each down 13 bps to 1.73 percent and 1.84 percent, respectively. The 30-year yield fell 6 bps to finish the week at 2.22 percent. While nothing is set in stone at this time, the messaging is becoming a bit clearer as to what investors should expect for an anticipated interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s upcoming March 15–16 meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that Russia's invasion of Ukraine will likely add to inflationary pressures and that the Fed will likely raise interest rates by 25 bps.

February 28, 2022

General Market News

  • The U.S. Treasury curve moved very little last week. The 2-year Treasury yield was up 4 basis points (bps), ending the week at 1.62 percent. The 5- and 10-year each rose 1 bp to finish at 1.91 percent and 1.97 percent, respectively, and the 30-year fell 2 bps over to end the week at 2.28 percent. As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are expected to weigh how the conflict may affect its interest rate policy at its March meeting. Fed governor Christopher Waller recently signaled potential support for a 50-bps hike to begin the tightening cycle, and, more recently, addressed the complications from the situation in eastern Europe. “It is possible,” Waller said, “that the state of the world will be different in the wake of the Ukraine attack, and that may mean that a more modest tightening is appropriate, but that remains to be seen.”

February 22, 2022

General Market News

  • The U.S. Treasury curve saw yields decline modestly on the short end and remained mostly flat on the longer end last week. The 2- and 5-year U.S. Treasury yields were down 11 basis points (bps), ending the week at 1.47 percent and 1.84 percent, respectively. The 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields were down 7 bps (to 1.96 percent) and 1 bp (to 2.3 percent), respectively. On Monday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman expressed an open mind around the idea of a 50-bps hike. There are still numerous senior Fed officials, however, who are signaling opposition to a half-percentage-point increase. Investors will be on the lookout for more clues and clearer sentiment as the March 15–16 meeting inches closer.

February 14, 2022

General Market News

  • The U.S. Treasury curve saw further flattening last week, increasing on the short end of the curve and remaining relatively flat on the longer end of the curve. The 2- and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increased 38 and 7 basis points (bps), respectively, while the 30-year U.S. Treasury yields decreased 3 bps. With the most recent inflation numbers coming in higher than anticipated, investors are still navigating the uncertainty of possible interest rate paths moving forward.

February 7, 2022

General Market News

  • The U.S. Treasury yield curve shifted higher last week as economic data moved upward. Friday’s January employment report showed a rise in nonfarm payrolls of 467,000 versus an average economist expectation of 51,000. In addition, November and December payroll numbers were revised to an additional 398,000 and 311,000, respectively. This report came following a warning of potential softness from the White House. As a result, yields moved higher across the curve. The report indicates that the economy is perhaps stronger than initially expected. While the January report commonly has noise related to seasonal effects, it will be important to see if this employment strength continues into February. The 2-, 10-, and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields increased 15.9, 15.2, and 13.8 basis points (bps), respectively.

January 31, 2022

General Market News

  • The U.S. Treasury curve continued to flatten last week. Yields on the front end of the curve moved higher as commentary from the Federal Reserve (Fed) members became more hawkish. Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, suggested that a rate hike in March was possible and a 50 basis points (bps) hike may be necessary. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield opened last Monday at 1.016 percent and closed the week at 1.172 percent. This represents an increase of 15.6 bps for the week. The 10-year Treasury yield increased just 0.9 bps last week, and the 30-year Treasury yield increased 0.2 bps. The reaction following Friday’s January employment report will be one to watch as the Fed anticipates a March rate hike.

January 24, 2022

General Market News

  • U.S. Treasuries underwent a volatile week of trading, as yields opened the week higher and closed with the back end of the curve flatter. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield opened last Monday at 0.969 percent and reached a high of 1.07 percent on Wednesday before closing the week at 0.993 percent. We saw a similar move in intermediate and long-dated Treasuries, though a more pronounced flattening, from Wednesday through Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 4.6 basis points (bps) last week, and the 30-year Treasury yield dropped 6.5 bps. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve (Fed) for indications on adjustments to its asset purchases and rate outlook.

January 18, 2022

General Market News

  • The yield curve saw modest flattening last week. The short end of the curve continued its move higher and the long end of the curve held steady. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield increased another 9.7 basis points (bps), closing at 0.967 percent. The 10-year Treasury yield increased 0.6 bps while the 30-year Treasury yield actually fell 0.2 bps. This news may indicate that the move in yields is approaching a near-term ceiling as appetite from investors keeps bond yields in check at this level. We will see if this trend continues and expands to the short end of the curve in the future.

January 10, 2022

General Market News

  • The yield curve moved higher across the board last week, and a noticeable shift across all maturities also occurred. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield opened the week at 0.743 percent and closed 12.7 basis points (bps) higher at 0.870 percent. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased 25.7 bps to 1.769 percent. Finally, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield moved 21.2 bps higher, closing at 2.117 percent. Higher rates spooked equity market investors as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) meeting minutes indicated it would be more aggressive with raising rates and tapering asset purchases.

January 3, 2022

General Market News

  • The yield curve moved modestly higher last week with a majority of the move taking place on the short end of the curve. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield opened the week at 0.693 percent and closed the week 4.1 basis points (bps) higher at 0.734 percent. The U.S. 10-year Treasury increased 1.9 bps to 1.513 percent. Finally, the 30-year Treasury was flat, opening and closing at 1.905 percent. The front end of the curve rose as more persistent inflation forced it to reduce its asset purchases at a faster clip, and rates could potentially follow if we continue to see lingering, elevated inflation.

December 20, 2021

General Market News

  • The yield curve moved modestly last week, with slight flattening on the back half as future growth projections continued to come down. The increased rate of tapering by the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday did little to surprise bond markets; this doubling was widely expected and the short end of the curve was not impacted by the news. The 2-year yield curve fell 1.3 basis points (bps), closing the week at 0.642 percent. The U.S. 10-year Treasury gave up 8 bps, closing at 1.402 percent. The U.S. 30-year gave up 6.5 bps, closing at 1.817 percent.

December 13, 2021

General Market News

  • The yield curve steepened last week, supported by positive news surrounding the Omicron variant and slightly faster-than-expected inflation data. On the short end of the curve, the U.S. 2-year Treasury saw yields pick up 6.9 basis points (bps) after opening the week at 0.59 percent. The back half of the curve also steepened 20 bps as yields on the 30-year Treasury moved from 1.68 percent to 1.88 percent. The U.S. 10-year Treasury saw a pickup of 13.1 bps.

December 6, 2021

General Market News

  • The yield curve continued to rise on the front end and flatten beyond the 5-year Treasury note last week. Near-term inflationary concerns drove the short end of the curve higher and flattened the back end of the curve due to lower future growth expectations amid concerns from the Omicron variant as well as slower global growth. The 10-year Treasury yield opened last week at 1.482 percent and closed the week at 1.341 percent, a drop of 14.1 basis points (bps). The 30-year opened last week at 1.827 percent and closed at 1.676 percent, falling 15.1 bps. The front end of the curve moved higher following Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s suggestion that the central bank may accelerate its taper. The 2-year rose 8.3 bps over the course of the week, closing at 0.591 percent.

November 29, 2021

General Market News

  • The yield curve, particularly the back end, flattened again last week. The 10-year Treasury yield opened the week at 1.548 percent and closed the week at 1.482 percent, a drop of 6.6 basis points (bps). The 30-year opened at 1.911 percent and fell 8.4 bps to close at 1.827 percent. The front end of the curve saw its recent march higher ease, as the 2-year fell 0.5 bps from last Monday’s open to 0.513 percent.

November 15, 2021

General Market News

  • The yield curve continued to flatten last week as inflationary data lifted the front end of the curve. The 2-year Treasury yield opened last Monday at 0.405 percent and closed the week more than 11 basis points (bps) higher at 0.522 percent. The 10-year increased roughly 13 bps, with yields moving from 1.455 percent to 1.584 percent, and the 30-year rose roughly 7 bps from 1.888 percent to 1.955 percent. The front end of the curve continues to come under pressure as the Federal Reserve (Fed) attempts to separate tapering from rate hikes.

November 8, 2021

General Market News

  • Yields fell across the Treasury curve last week as the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced plans to begin tapering the pace of asset purchases this month. The central bank will cut back on Treasury buying by $10 billion per month. The 10-year fell 8 basis points (bps) week-over-week to open Monday morning at 1.48 percent. The 30-year dropped 5 bps to 1.90 percent, the 20-year fell 7 bps to 1.91 percent, the 2-year was down 6 bps to 0.42 percent, and the 5-year shed 9 bps to 1.08 percent.

November 1, 2021

General Market News

  • The Treasury curve flattened slightly last week as investors geared up for this week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points (bps) week-over-week, opening Monday morning at 1.57 percent. The 30-year dropped 12 bps to 1.95 percent, the 20-year fell 7 bps to 1.93 percent, the 2-year rose 6 bps to 0.43 percent, and the 5-year climbed 4 bps to 1.21 percent.

October 25, 2021

General Market News

  • Treasury yields moved higher across the curve last week as equity markets rallied, and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank still plans on tapering asset purchases sooner rather than later. The 10-year yield picked up 6 basis points (bps) week-over-week to open Monday morning at 1.66 percent. The 30- and 20-year yields each climbed about 7 bps to 2.11 percent and 2.01 percent, respectively. The 2-year yield was up 3 bps to 0.42 percent, and the 5-year yield climbed 4 bps to 1.17 percent.

October 18, 2021

General Market News

  • The Treasury curve saw a modest flattening last week as investors searched for direction amid earnings releases and growing inflation fears. The 10-year yield picked up 1 basis point (bp) week-over-week to open Monday morning at 1.62 percent. The 30-year yield fell about 12 bps to 2.05 percent, while the 20-year lost 8 bps to around 2.03 percent. The 2-year yield was up 12 bps to 0.44 percent, and the 5-year yield climbed 11 bps to 1.18 percent.

October 4, 2021

General Market News

  • The Treasury yield curve steepened last week as investors weighed the possibility of longer-term elevated inflation. The 10-year yield was unchanged week-over-week, opening on Monday morning at around 1.48 percent. The 30-year yield rose about 5 basis points (bps) to open at 2.05 percent, while the 20-year yield gained 4 bps to around 1.98 percent. The 2-year yield was unchanged at 0.27 percent, and the 5-year yield lost about 5 bps to 0.94 percent. The 4-week Treasury bills sold off on Friday as investors eye a late October deadline for Congress to raise the debt ceiling.

September 27, 2021

General Market News

  • The Treasury yield curve climbed following last week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, during which the central bank indicated tapering asset purchases may be warranted before year-end. The 10-year yield was up 17 basis points (bps), opening at 1.48 percent on Monday morning. The 30-year rose 15 bps to 2 percent, the 5-year gained 15 bps to 0.97 percent, and the 2-year was 6 bps higher at 0.28 percent.

September 20, 2021

General Market News

  • The Treasury yield curve flattened on a week-over-week basis as markets sought safety early Monday, following a sharp sell-off in Asia and in anticipation of this week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The 10-year yield was down about 1 basis point to 1.32 percent. The 30-year fell about 5 basis points (bps) to 1.86 percent, while the 5-year gained 2 bps to about 0.83 percent and the 2-year was unchanged from last week at 0.20 percent.

September 13, 2021

General Market News

  • Treasury yields saw little movement last week as markets look for direction amid growth concerns and the coming September Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The 10-year yield was unchanged from last week, opening at 1.33 percent on Monday morning. The 30-year fell 2 basis points (bps) to 1.91 percent, while the 5-year gained about 2 bps to 0.78 percent and the 2-year was unchanged at 0.20 percent.

September 7, 2021

General Market News

  • Treasury yields moved higher across the curve last week as markets came to grips with a weaker-than-expected August jobs report. The 10-year yield rose about 9 basis points (bps) over the past week to open at 1.37 percent on Monday morning. The 30-year picked up 8 bps to 1.98 percent, the 5-year gained about 5 bps to 0.81 percent, and the 2-year rose a single basis point to 0.20 percent.

August 30, 2021

General Market News

  • The Treasury yield curve steepened modestly last week after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Fed’s virtual annual symposium. The 10-year Treasury yield picked up 5 basis points (bps) week-over-week to open at about 1.3 percent on Monday morning. The 2-year fell about 1 bp to around 0.21 percent, the 5-year gained approximately 2 bps to 0.79 percent, and the 30-year was up 5 bps to 1.92 percent. After these muted moves, the markets are looking ahead to the August jobs report.

August 23, 2021

General Market News

  • With investors awaiting the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) virtual symposium and Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech this Friday, Treasury yields were mixed across the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield was unchanged week-over-week, opening at 1.26 percent on Monday. The 2-year picked up about 2 basis points (bps) to roughly 0.21 percent, the 5-year gained approximately 3 bps to 0.78 percent, and the 30-year was down 4 bps to about 1.88 percent.

August 16, 2021

General Market News

  • Treasury yields moved slightly lower across the curve last week as July’s Consumer Price Index report matched economist expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points (bps) to open Monday at 1.28 percent. The 2-year lost 1 bp to 0.20 percent, the 5-year shed 2 bps to 0.77 percent, and the 30-year was down 3 bps to about 1.9 percent.

August 9, 2021

General Market News

  • Treasury yields moved slightly higher across the curve last week as investors reacted to a better-than-expected July jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 9 basis points (bps) to 1.27 percent. The 2-year gained 3 bps to 0.20 percent, the 5-year rose approximately 10 bps to 0.75 percent, and the 30-year picked up 7 bps to about 1.9 percent.

August 2, 2021

General Market News

  • Treasury yields moved slightly lower across the curve week-over-week. The 10-year Treasury yield slid about 7 basis points (bps) to open near 1.21 percent. The 2-year fell roughly 2 bps to 0.17 percent, the 5-year dropped approximately 5 bps to 0.67 percent, and the 30-year shed 5 bps to about 1.89 percent. Investors are in a holding pattern after last week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, awaiting guidance on impending monetary policy shifts.

July 19, 2021

General Market News

  • Treasury yields rebounded modestly last week before a sharp sell-off cratered yields on Monday morning. The 10-year lost 14 basis points (bps) week-over-week to open at around 1.2 percent, its lowest level since early February of this year. The 30-year shed 15 bps to open around 1.83 percent early Monday. Shorter-dated bonds saw smaller adjustments but still moved lower, as the 5-year yield lost 7 bps to open at about 0.72 percent and the 2-year lost 2 bps to open at around 0.2 percent. The latest moves mark a renewed fear of virus variants and questions about economic growth in the near term.

July 12, 2021

General Market News

  • Treasury yields plunged last week as investors weighed concerns about virus variants and shifting monetary policy and the potential effects on the global recovery. The 10-year yield fell about 13 basis points (bps) week-over-week to open at 1.33 percent on Monday morning. The 5-year yield also fell 13 bps to open at 0.76 percent. The 30-year yield was the next biggest mover, shedding 10 bps to open at 1.96 percent. The 2-year yield fell about 5 bps from 0.26 percent to 0.21 percent.

July 6, 2021

General Market News

  • Yields fell slightly across the Treasury curve last week as the first half of 2021 wrapped up. The 10-year yield fell about 5 basis points (bps) week-over-week to open around 1.41 percent on Monday morning. The 2-year was down 1 bp to 0.26 percent. The 30-year saw the biggest move, shedding 7 bps to open at 2.03 percent. The 5-year was down 2 bps to 0.89 percent. The 10-year has hovered between 1.5 percent and 1.4 percent for the past several months as investors gauge the global recovery and possible policy changes from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

June 21, 2021

General Market News

  • The Treasury curve flattened significantly after last week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting as investors grappled with the central bank’s hawkish forecasts. The 10-year Treasury yield was mostly unchanged Monday morning, opening at 1.44 percent. The 30-year fell 11 basis points (bps) week-over-week, opening at 2.03 percent. Shorter-dated notes sold off sharply as the 5-year gained 18 bps week-over-week, opening at 0.89 percent, and the 2-year rose 8 bps to 0.23 percent.

June 14, 2021

General Market News

  • With future inflation expectations abated and investors returning to bonds, longer-term Treasury yields flattened last week. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 9.7 basis points (bps) from last week’s open, starting at 1.46 percent Monday morning. The 30-year yield fell 8.5 bps week-over-week, opening at 2.15 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened at 0.15 percent, up slightly from the previous week.

June 7, 2021

General Market News

  • The yield curve flattened slightly last week as fixed income investors weighed the reopening of the economy against the possibility the Federal Reserve (Fed) will taper its policy later in the year. The 10-year Treasury yield opened the week at 1.58 percent and closed about 2.2 basis points (bps) lower. On Monday morning, the 10-year opened at 1.57 percent, reversing most of last week’s move. The 30-year opened Monday at 2.25 percent, 7.8 bps lower than last week’s open. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year Treasury opened at 0.16 percent, 0.6 bps higher than last week’s open.

June 1, 2021

General Market News

  • The yield curve moved modestly lower again last week as the Federal Reserve (Fed) continued its patient monetary policy. The 10-year Treasury yield opened the week at 1.62 percent and closed more than 4 basis points (bps) lower at 1.58 percent. It opened at 1.63 percent on Tuesday morning. The 30-year opened at 2.33 percent, slightly up from last week’s open of 2.32 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened at 0.15 percent, 0.6 bps below last week’s open.

May 24, 2021

General Market News

  • The yield curve ticked lower on the week as investors digested the most recent inflationary data and debated future inflation expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield opened Monday morning at 1.62 percent, only slightly lower than last week’s open of 1.63 percent. The 30-year yield opened at 2.31 percent, down 4.1 basis points (bps) from last week’s open of 2.35 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened at 0.16 percent, just 0.6 bps more than last week’s open.

May 17, 2021

General Market News

  • The yield curve moved modestly higher on the week as inflationary data came in above economists’ expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield opened Monday morning slightly higher than 1.64 percent, up from last week’s open of 1.58 percent. The 30-year opened at 2.35 percent, up 7.2 basis points (bps) from last week’s open of 2.28 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened at 0.15 percent. just 0.6 bps more than last week’s open.

May 10, 2021

General Market News

  • The 10-year Treasury yield opened Monday morning at 1.57 percent, down from last week’s open of 1.63 percent. The 30-year opened at 2.28 percent, down 1.7 basis points (bps) from last week’s open of 2.30 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened at 0.15 percent—1.3 bps less than last week’s open.

April 19, 2021

General Market News

  • We saw mild flattening of the yield curve last week as longer-dated yields declined. Despite positive economic data, the drop occurred as foreign buyers, particularly from Japan, purchased bonds and drove yields down. The 10-year Treasury yield remained flat, opening the week at 1.66 percent and closing 9 basis points (bps) lower at 1.57 percent. The 10-year opened just shy of 1.61 percent on the 19th, eroding part of last week’s move. The 30-year opened at 2.29 percent, down roughly 5 bps from last week’s open. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year Treasury opened at 0.16 percent, increasing just two-tenths of a basis point.

April 12, 2021

General Market News

  • The 10-year Treasury yield remained flat last week. On Monday morning, it opened just one-tenth of a basis point higher than last Monday’s open. The 30-year came in at 2.34 percent on Monday, down just two-tenths of a basis point from last week’s open. On the shorter end of the curve, there was a slight decline in yields after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s 60 Minutes interview, in which he stated he expects rates to remain low through 2021. The 2-year opened last week at 0.18 percent and came in at 0.17 percent on Monday morning.

April 5, 2021

General Market News

  • Rates increased modestly last week. The 10-year Treasury yield opened at 1.67 percent and closed at 1.71 percent. On Monday morning, the 30-year opened at 2.35 percent, down from last week’s open of 2.38 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened last week at 0.14 percent and increased to 0.18 percent on Monday.

March 29, 2021

General Market News

  • Inflation fears have increased recently, and yet inflation remains muted, growing at just 1.4 percent year-over-year, according to the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. In August, the Federal Reserve agreed to let the PCE price index run hot to get average inflation closer to the targeted 2 percent level, so this data is worth watching. On Monday morning, the 10-year Treasury yield opened at 1.65 percent, a decline of 12 basis points (bps) from last Monday’s open of 1.73 percent. The 30-year yield opened at 2.36 percent, down from last week’s open of 2.44 percent. There was a slight increase on the shorter end of the curve, with the 2-year rising 0.2 bps to Monday’s open of 0.14 percent.

March 22, 2021

General Market News

  • Rates continued to rise last week. On Monday morning, the 10-year Treasury yield opened just below 1.71 percent, an increase of 8.5 basis points from last week’s open of 1.63 percent. The 30-year opened just above 2.41 percent, up from last week’s open of 2.36 percent. Finally, on the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened last week at 0.15 percent and remained flat through Monday morning’s open. Despite comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, rates did not rise based on inflation concerns. Powell continued to highlight the Fed’s stance of keeping rates low for some time amid uncertainty in its economic forecasts.

March 15, 2021

General Market News

  • Rates moved higher last week but at a more muted pace, with the 10-year Treasury yield opening just shy of 1.58 percent and closing at 1.64 percent, where it remained through Monday’s open. The 30-year yield opened at almost 2.40 percent, up from last week’s open of 2.30 percent. There was a slight increase in yields on the shorter end of the curve as well, with the 2-year opening Monday at 0.15 percent.

March 8, 2021

General Market News

  • Rates continued to rise last week, with the 10-year Treasury yield opening at almost 1.41 percent and closing at 1.59 percent. On Monday morning, the 10-year opened just shy of 1.60 percent, and the 30-year opened at 2.32 percent, up from last week’s open of 2.16 percent. There was a slight increase in yields on the shorter end of the curve as well, with the 2-year yield opening at 0.15 percent. Last week, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said he expects some transient inflation in the near term. There is a rumor that the Fed may relaunch Operation Twist, which was last launched in 2011 and involved the Fed selling short-term Treasuries and purchasing longer-dated ones to mitigate rising financing costs.

March 1, 2021

General Market News

  • Rates continued to rise last week, with the 5-year Treasury yield increasing 19 basis points (bps). On Monday morning, the 10-year opened just shy of 1.40 percent, which was only 6 bps higher than last week’s open. The 10-year hit a high of 1.61 percent last Thursday, however, which demonstrates the recent volatility in Treasuries. The 30-year opened on Monday at 2.15 percent, up from last week’s open of 2.14 percent. There was a slight increase in yields on the shorter end of the curve as well, with the 2-year hitting a high of 0.19 percent last Thursday.

February 22, 2021

General Market News

  • Rates continued to rise last week, with the 5- and 10-year Treasuries shifting the most. This follows an increase in 10- and 20-year Treasuries the previous week. It’s unknown when or if the short end of the curve will follow with action from the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is committed to driving inflation before raising interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield opened last week near 1.21 percent, closing just shy of 1.38 percent to end the week. It opened this morning at 1.36 percent, 15 basis points (bps) higher than last week’s open. The 30-year Treasury opened at 2.15 percent, a gain of 14 bps from last week’s open of 2.01 percent. Finally, on the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year Treasury opened last week at 0.11 percent and has remained flat through Monday’s open.

February 16, 2021

General Market News

  • Rates picked up across the yield curve last week, especially with 10- and 20-year Treasury maturities. The primary focus remains on a potential stimulus package and near-term uncertainty with respect to market inflation expectations and future Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. The 10-year Treasury yield opened last week just below 1.17 percent, closing the week at 1.20 percent; it opened at 1.23 percent this morning. The 30-year opened this morning just below 2.03 percent after opening last week at 1.99 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, we saw a slight increase in yields. The 2-year opened last week at 0.105 percent, ticking up to 0.113 percent this morning.

February 8, 2021

General Market News

  • With coronavirus cases continuing to fall globally, we saw significant steepening of the yield curve. The 10-year Treasury yield opened last week at 1.07 percent and closed just below 1.14 percent. This morning, the 10-year opened at 1.18 percent, up 11 basis points (bps) week-over-week. The 30-year opened just shy of 1.98 percent, up 14.5 bps from last week. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened last week at 0.11 percent and lost less than one-half of a basis point to open this morning.

February 1, 2021

General Market News

  • We saw mixed trading in the fixed income markets last week, with purchases ticking up on the shorter and longer ends of the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield opened last week at 1.09 percent and closed at 1.07 percent. It opened this morning at 1.09 percent. The 30-year opened this morning at 1.84 percent, a gain of 1 basis point from last week’s opening. On the shorter end of the curve, we saw a sizable move; the 2-year opened last week at 0.13 percent and dropped to 0.11 percent at the opening this morning.

January 25, 2021

General Market News

  • There was minimal flattening in the yield curve during the holiday-shortened week. The 10-year Treasury yield opened at 1.09 percent and closed at 1.05 percent. This morning, the 10-year yield opened just below 1.07 percent—a loss of approximately 2 basis points (bps) since last week’s open. The 30-year opened at 1.82 percent, a loss of 2 bps from last week’s open of 1.84. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened last week at 0.14 percent and lost 1 bp at the opening this morning.

January 19, 2021

General Market News

  • After major steepening last week, there has been little movement in the yield curve. The 10-year Treasury yield opened at 1.12 percent and closed the week at 1.11 percent. This morning, the 10-year yield opened just above 1.10 percent—a loss of approximately 2 basis points (bps). The 30-year opened at 1.85 percent, which was a loss of roughly 2 bps from last week’s open of 1.88 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened last week at 0.14 percent and added 0.6 bps at the opening this morning. Bond investors seem to be caught in between the Biden team’s $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal and lackluster economic data.

January 11, 2021

General Market News

  • After little movement during the week of New Year’s, we saw significant steepening of the yield curve in the first week of 2021. The 10-year Treasury yield opened at 0.93 percent and closed just shy of 1.11 percent. This morning, the 10-year yield opened just above 1.13 percent—a pickup of 20 basis points (bps) in just one week. The 30-year yield opened at 1.9 percent—a gain of more than 23 bps from last week’s open of 1.66 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened last week at 0.14 percent and fell just 1.2 bps at the opening this morning. The pickup in yields was predominantly driven by the results of the Georgia runoffs, as two additional senators for the Democratic Party increases the likelihood of additional stimulus.

January 4, 2021

General Market News

  • Last week saw minimal movement in the yield curve due to light trading and the holiday. The 10-year Treasury yield opened at 0.93 percent and closed the week just shy of 0.92 percent. This morning, the 10-year yield opened at almost 0.93 percent. The 30-year opened at 1.66 percent—a loss of less than 1 basis point from last week’s open of 1.67 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened last week at 0.12 percent and fell just three-tenths of a basis point this morning.

December 21, 2020

General Market News

  • Last week saw a moderate steepening of the yield curve as lawmakers moved closer to a potential stimulus package and the Moderna vaccine was approved. The 10-year Treasury yield opened the week at 0.93 percent and closed just shy of 0.95 percent. This morning, it opened just below 0.90 percent, down 3 basis points (bps) from last week’s open. The 30-year opened this morning at 1.64 percent, a loss of 3 bps from last week’s open of 1.67 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, we saw a sizable move as the 2-year opened last week at 0.121 percent and rose one-fifth of a basis point to 0.123 percent this morning. The bond market signals investors were cautiously optimistic heading into the weekend.

December 14, 2020

General Market News

  • Last week saw a moderate flattening of the yield curve in response to potential stimulus talks, vaccine approval news, and the latest jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield opened last week near 0.97 percent and ended the week just below 0.89 percent. It opened higher this morning, just shy of 0.92 percent. The 30-year opened this morning at 1.66 percent, a loss of 8 basis points (bps) from last week’s open at 1.74 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, we saw a sizable move as the 2-year opened last week at 0.16 percent and dropped 3 bps to 0.13 percent this morning.

December 7, 2020

General Market News

  • Last week saw a steepening of the yield curve as optimism grew over vaccine news and the potential for new stimulus. The 10-year Treasury yield opened last week just below 0.85 percent and closed just shy of 0.97 percent. This morning, the 10-year opened at 0.94 percent, almost 9 basis points (bps) higher than last week’s open. The 30-year opened this morning at 1.70 percent, an increase of 11 bps over last week. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened last week at 0.15 percent and dropped to 0.14 this morning.

November 30, 2020

General Market News

  • The holiday-shortened week saw a modest pickup in yields. The 10-year Treasury yield opened at 0.82 percent and closed just shy of 0.88 percent on Wednesday. This morning, the 10-year yield opened at 0.85 percent, up 3 basis points (bps) from last week’s open. The 30-year yield opened just shy of 1.52 percent last week, and it opened at 1.58 percent this morning—a pickup of 6 bps. Finally, on the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened at 0.16 percent last week, dropping 1 bp to 0.15 percent this morning.